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ViaNovo Snapshot

Yesterday's mid-term elections in Mexico mark another important milestone in the country's evolving democracy. I hope you find the following article about the somewhat surprising results of interest.

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James S. Taylor
ViaNovo

A Strong Comeback for Mexico's PRI

Mexicans went to the polls yesterday in closely watched mid-term elections that will have an important bearing on the final three years of President Felipe Calderón's term in office. The president's high approval ratings-near the 70 percent mark-did not translate into votes for his conservative National Action Party (PAN), however, as the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) reasserted its standing as a political force to be reckoned with in congressional, state and local races.

Difficult Choices

It has been a particularly daunting year in Mexico. The country has seen a severe economic contraction brought on by the global economic crisis, the outbreak of the 2009 flu pandemic and rampant drug-related violence brought on by President Calderón's decision to take on the powerful drug cartels. Voter interest was thought to be extremely low and a movement asking voters to cast a blank ballot (voto nulo) appeared to gain momentum in recent weeks. Ultimately, voter apathy wasn't quite as high as predicted, as almost 45 percent of eligible voters went to the polls, but the number of blank ballots did reach an historic high of 5.8 percent nationally (and an astonishing 10.8 percent in Mexico City).

Facing elections in this difficult environment, PAN strategists chose to focus on the drug fight-a majority of Mexicans support the President's security policies-and attacked the PRI for its record in handling the problem. In a highly controversial move, the party ran ads in which it accused PRI governors of ignoring and perhaps even colluding with drug traffickers.

The PRI, for its part, offered itself to voters as a remade party, touting its "proven experience, new attitude." The leftist Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) was not a factor in the campaign, as it proved incapable of overcoming deep internal divisions.

On election day, concerns over the country's economic difficulties overshadowed concerns about security and voters opted for the PRI. In so doing, Mexicans handed their president a new set of challenges that will test his political and leadership skills as he attempts to move his legislative agenda in an opposition-controlled Congress.

The New Congress

Pre-election polls had for months tracked a preference among voters for the PRI, the former ruling party that lost the presidency in 2000 after governing Mexico for 71 years. Sunday's vote confirmed the resurgence of the PRI, which won about 36 percent of the vote to the PAN's 27.5 percent. The PRI gained a simple majority in the lower house of Congress, with an estimated 238 seats in the 500-member chamber. This outcome shifts the balance of power decisively away from the PAN, which came away with just 144 seats.

The accompanying chart indicates the changing composition of Mexico's Congress, dating from 1997 and through the presidency of Vicente Fox (2000 - 2006). In yesterday's elections, the PRI was clearly well-placed to benefit from the decline of its rivals: the PRD sank to an historic low number of seats, the PAN lost more than half of the seats it held in the outgoing Congress and the PRI returned to numbers it has not seen since the 1990s.

It is difficult to predict what the PRI majority in the Congress will mean for President Calderón's reform agenda. Some observers believe that the PRI's victory signals the end of reform possibilities, particularly after the PAN's harsh ad campaign. Others believe that the PRI is ultimately a party of pragmatists and, with an eye to regaining the presidency in 2012, it will act now to advance some of the contentious, but much-needed fiscal and structural reforms President Calderón wants.

The president acknowledged the election results early last night, and urged the new Congress to put the competition in the past and to focus on coming together for the good of the country to address the challenges of the economy, to create jobs and to improve public safety. In a speech urging reconciliation and cooperation, however, some observers were struck by the president's failure to mention the PRI by name.

PRI Wins Big in Gubernatorial Races

Also up for grabs in Sunday's elections were six governorships, in the states of Campeche, Colima, Queretaro, San Luis Potosí and the northern border states of Nuevo León and Sonora. More than 500 mayors were also elected.

In an indication of the PRI's organizational strength and broad national presence, the party was expected to capture all of the statehouses, with the possible exception of Sonora, where the PAN hoped to gain ground in the fallout over the tragic fire at a government-approved day care center in which 48 children died. Though results have been slow to emerge, it appears that the PRI candidate, who led by as much as 17 points prior to the fire, lost support because of the poor handling of the crisis by outgoing Governor Bours, a member of the PRI. The PRI's victory in San Luis Potosí is noteworthy, as that state had been governed most recently by the PAN.

Mexico observers, particularly those in Texas, recognize Nuevo León as one of the more important states to watch, given its status as Mexico's economic crown jewel. The PRI candidate, Rodrigo Medina de la Cruz, won 49 percent of the vote. The 36-year old governor-elect, who served as the Secretary of the Government for his PRI predecessor, is expected to govern from the center.

On the local level, the PRI posted solid gains around the country, even winning the mayor's office in the PAN stronghold of Guadalajara, the country's second largest city.

An Uncertain Outlook

Sunday's election results yield a complicated picture. While the PRI's resurgence serves as a reminder that the past is still very present in Mexican politics, the party itself is very different from the one that governed for decades. PRI governors and regional interests have more influence in the party and they played an important role in determining the party's election strategy. Competition within the PRI for the party's 2012 presidential nomination will soon heat up, and may detract from the party's ability to forge a cohesive legislative strategy.

President Calderón's popularity is another factor that cannot be overlooked. Whether yesterday's election results effectively render him a lame duck, open new possibilities for compromise and collaboration, or change little remains to be seen.